Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 13 at the 78

Chicago Bears 10 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(6:12) 19-T.Taylor punts 49 yards to TEN 29, Center-46-S.Daly. 19-J.Jackson to TEN 31 for 2 yards (46-S.Daly). PENALTY on TEN-15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 31.

The Three Options

GO -2.49 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.71 EP
68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 78, worth -4.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model