4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 32

Chicago Bears 10 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(14:51) 8-C.Santos 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +1.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.93 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 32, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +0.84 EP
What Happened
  • 74% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 42, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP