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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 30

Chicago Bears 13 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(9:57) 8-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.43 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 40, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model