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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 81

Tennessee Titans 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(9:59) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 49 yards to CHI 32, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-D.Carter ran ob at TEN 48 for 20 yards (92-J.Harrell).

The Three Options

GO -3.04 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.92 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 81, worth -5.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 38, worth -2.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model