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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 43

Chicago Bears 24 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(2:33) 19-T.Taylor punts 34 yards to TEN 9, Center-46-S.Daly. 19-J.Jackson to TEN 18 for 9 yards (39-J.Blackwell; 24-K.Herbert).

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +2.09 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 43, worth -1.56 EP
KICK -0.17 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model