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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 40

Washington Commanders 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

What Actually Happened

(11:51) 73-T.Scott reported in as eligible. 5-J.Daniels left end pushed ob at TB 38 for 2 yards (54-L.David).

The Three Options

GO +1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.23 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -0.55 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.27 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.92 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model