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Washington Commanders

HC Dan Quinn
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TB Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2024-09-08 · 16:25 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US 🌧 Rain Spread 4.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

WAS
23.3%
TB
76.7%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: -0.142 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • WAS defense: +0.169 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • TB offense: +0.046 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • TB defense: -0.052 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • Baker Mayfield (TB): +0.115 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

WAS 17
–
TB 28
Projected margin: TB by 11 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

WAS

Marcus Mariota QB Out Chest
Jer'Zhan Newton DT Doubtful Foot

TB

Logan Hall DE Out Foot
Trey Palmer WR Questionable Concussion
Calijah Kancey DT Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 20
–
TB 37

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:39 FG TB (11:39) 4-C.McLaughlin 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Camarda. WAS 0 – TB 3
  • Q1 05:11 FG TB (5:11) 4-C.McLaughlin 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Camarda. WAS 0 – TB 6
  • Q2 10:59 TD TB (10:59) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – TB 12
  • Q2 07:23 TD WAS (7:23) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson left tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 6 – TB 13
  • Q2 00:20 FG TB (:20) 4-C.McLaughlin 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Camarda. WAS 7 – TB 16
  • Q3 07:15 TD TB (7:15) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 14-C.Godwin for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 7 – TB 22
  • Q3 01:55 TD WAS (1:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 13 – TB 23
  • Q4 15:00 TD TB (15:00) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 15-J.McMillan for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 14 – TB 29
  • Q4 03:34 TD TB (3:34) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 13-M.Evans for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 14 – TB 36
  • Q4 01:16 TD WAS (1:16) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 20 – TB 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 3 at the 38
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 62%

    (11:39) 4-C.McLaughlin 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 17 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (9:41) 10-T.Way punts 54 yards to TB 23, Center-69-T.Ott. 10-T.Palmer pushed ob at TB 38 for 15 yards (26-J.McNichols).

  • Q1 TB 4th & 5 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 94%

    (5:11) 4-C.McLaughlin 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 3 at the 29
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 81%

    (:21) 3-C.York 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 8 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 97%

    (:20) 4-C.McLaughlin 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 1 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 57%

    (11:51) 73-T.Scott reported in as eligible. 5-J.Daniels left end pushed ob at TB 38 for 2 yards (54-L.David).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 10 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 62%

    (9:26) 3-C.York 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (6:29) 10-T.Way punts 41 yards to TB 24, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-32-M.Walker.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 12 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (4:55) 5-J.Camarda punts 38 yards to WAS 40, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 8 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 25%

    (11:15) 10-T.Way punts 44 yards to TB 9, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.