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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 38

Washington Commanders 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

What Actually Happened

(9:26) 3-C.York 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.22 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.98 EP
KICK -0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model