4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 12 at the 78

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(4:55) 5-J.Camarda punts 38 yards to WAS 40, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.70 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 78, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 35, worth -1.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model