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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 53

Washington Commanders 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30

What Actually Happened

(11:15) 10-T.Way punts 44 yards to TB 9, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.66 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 53, worth -2.74 EP
KICK -1.56 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model