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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 21

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(11:27) 6-Y.Koo 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.86 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 31, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model