4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
ATL Away

Atlanta Falcons

HC Raheem Morris
@
PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
Monday 2024-09-16 · 20:15 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear Spread 5.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

ATL
38.6%
PHI
61.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL offense: -0.118 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • PHI defense: +0.155 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Jalen Hurts (PHI): +0.150 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • ATL defense: -0.076 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ATL 21
–
PHI 23
Projected margin: PHI by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

ATL

Nate Landman LB Out Calf
Antonio Hamilton CB Out Groin

PHI

A.J. Brown WR Questionable Hamstring
Johnny Wilson WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 22
–
PHI 21

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 11:27 FG ATL (11:27) 6-Y.Koo 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 3 – PHI 0
  • Q2 05:20 TD PHI (5:20) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 6-D.Smith for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-G.Jarrett]. ATL 3 – PHI 6
  • Q2 00:09 FG ATL (:09) 6-Y.Koo 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 6 – PHI 7
  • Q3 10:16 FG ATL (10:16) 6-Y.Koo 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 9 – PHI 7
  • Q3 04:31 FG PHI (4:31) 4-J.Elliott 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. ATL 9 – PHI 10
  • Q3 01:29 TD ATL (1:29) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 1-D.Mooney for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 15 – PHI 10
  • Q4 06:51 TD PHI (6:51) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 15 – PHI 16
  • Q4 01:42 FG PHI (1:42) 4-J.Elliott 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. ATL 15 – PHI 21
  • Q4 00:38 TD ATL (:38) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 5-D.London for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on ATL-5-D.London, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. ATL 21 – PHI 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 6 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 33%

    (12:10) 10-B.Mann punts 40 yards to ATL 8, Center-49-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-28-W.Shipley.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 4 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (10:08) 13-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to PHI 27, Center-49-L.McCullough. 18-B.Covey to PHI 36 for 9 yards (44-T.Andersen, 40-J.Bertrand).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 4 at the 9
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 97%

    (4:45) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right to 88-D.Goedert (21-M.Hughes) [97-G.Jarrett].

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (2:01) 13-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to PHI 25, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (:29) 10-B.Mann punts 53 yards to ATL 16, Center-49-R.Lovato. 26-A.Williams ran ob at ATL 27 for 11 yards (54-J.Trotter).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 8 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 90%

    (11:27) 6-Y.Koo 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 3 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 52%

    (8:43) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles right guard to ATL 18 for 23 yards (20-D.Alford). PENALTY on PHI-1-J.Hurts, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced between downs.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (:09) 6-Y.Koo 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 12 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 94%

    (10:16) 6-Y.Koo 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 8 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

    (4:31) 4-J.Elliott 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 4 at the 53
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 22%

    (2:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle to 34-R.McCloud to PHI 41 for 12 yards (53-Z.Baun).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 38%

    (12:29) 1-J.Hurts left guard to ATL 43 for 3 yards (3-J.Bates).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (5:42) (No Huddle) 7-B.Robinson right guard to ATL 39 for no gain (8-C.Gardner-Johnson). ** Injury Update: PHI-29-A.Maddox has returned to the game.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 3 at the 10 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 97%

    (1:42) 4-J.Elliott 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.