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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 4

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(:09) 6-Y.Koo 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +2.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.88 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 4, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +2.90 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.94 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model