4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 48

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(12:10) 10-B.Mann punts 40 yards to ATL 8, Center-49-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-28-W.Shipley.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.52 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 48, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -1.03 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model