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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 53

Atlanta Falcons 9 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(2:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle to 34-R.McCloud to PHI 41 for 12 yards (53-Z.Baun).

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.71 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 53, worth -2.99 EP
KICK -1.86 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.83 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 15, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model