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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 46

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Atlanta Falcons 15

What Actually Happened

(12:29) 1-J.Hurts left guard to ATL 43 for 3 yards (3-J.Bates).

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.91 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 46, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -0.97 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 13, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model