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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 72

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(10:08) 13-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to PHI 27, Center-49-L.McCullough. 18-B.Covey to PHI 36 for 9 yards (44-T.Andersen, 40-J.Bertrand).

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.03 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 72, worth -4.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 30, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model