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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 61

Atlanta Falcons 15 – Philadelphia Eagles 18

What Actually Happened

(5:42) (No Huddle) 7-B.Robinson right guard to ATL 39 for no gain (8-C.Gardner-Johnson). ** Injury Update: PHI-29-A.Maddox has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.80 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 61, worth -3.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 20, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model