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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 10

Philadelphia Eagles 18 – Atlanta Falcons 15

What Actually Happened

(1:42) 4-J.Elliott 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +3.15 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 10, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model