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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 9

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(4:45) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right to 88-D.Goedert (21-M.Hughes) [97-G.Jarrett].

The Three Options

GO +2.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.93 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 9, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model