Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 69

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

(:29) 10-B.Mann punts 53 yards to ATL 16, Center-49-R.Lovato. 26-A.Williams ran ob at ATL 27 for 11 yards (54-J.Trotter).

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP

50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.70 EP
50% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 69, worth -3.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model