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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 61

Chicago Bears 3 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(8:25) (Shotgun) 24-K.Herbert up the middle to CHI 40 for 1 yard (20-J.Ward, 4-K.Lassiter).

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.75 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 61, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 20, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model