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Chicago Bears

HC Matt Eberflus
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Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans
Sunday 2024-09-15 · 20:20 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 6.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

CHI
31.9%
HOU
68.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to HOU: C.J. Stroud (HOU) +0.140 vs Caleb Williams (CHI) -0.380 EPA/dropback
  • CHI offense: -0.062 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • HOU offense: -0.060 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • CHI defense: -0.138 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • HOU defense: -0.060 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

CHI 20
–
HOU 25
Projected margin: HOU by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

CHI

Ryan Bates C Out Shoulder
Khari Blasingame FB Out Hand
Keenan Allen WR Questionable Heel
DeMarcus Walker DE Questionable Foot
Rome Odunze WR Questionable Knee

HOU

M.J. Stewart S Out Knee
Dameon Pierce RB Questionable Hamstring
Juice Scruggs C Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 13
–
HOU 19

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:25 FG HOU (10:25) 15-K.Fairbairn 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. CHI 0 – HOU 3
  • Q1 03:55 FG CHI (3:55) 8-C.Santos 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. CHI 3 – HOU 3
  • Q2 15:00 TD HOU (15:00) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CHI-29-T.Stevenson, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. CHI 3 – HOU 9
  • Q2 09:58 FG HOU (9:58) 15-K.Fairbairn 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. CHI 3 – HOU 13
  • Q2 00:35 TD CHI (:35) (Shotgun) 24-K.Herbert left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 9 – HOU 13
  • Q2 00:06 FG HOU (:06) 15-K.Fairbairn 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. CHI 10 – HOU 16
  • Q4 13:43 FG HOU (13:43) 15-K.Fairbairn 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. CHI 10 – HOU 19
  • Q4 02:56 FG CHI (2:56) 8-C.Santos 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. CHI 13 – HOU 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 5 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 66%

    (10:25) 15-K.Fairbairn 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 19 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 73%

    (3:55) 8-C.Santos 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 1 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 36%

    (1:40) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 87-C.Stover pushed ob at CHI 32 for 18 yards (49-T.Edmunds).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (13:40) 19-T.Taylor punts 41 yards to HOU 23, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 29
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 83%

    (9:58) 15-K.Fairbairn 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (8:25) (Shotgun) 24-K.Herbert up the middle to CHI 40 for 1 yard (20-J.Ward, 4-K.Lassiter).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 17 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (6:07) 19-T.Taylor punts 54 yards to HOU 13, Center-46-S.Daly, out of bounds.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 11 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:49) 6-T.Townsend punts 37 yards to HOU 49, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (13:35) 19-T.Taylor punts 53 yards to HOU 10, Center-46-S.Daly. 82-S.Sims to HOU 10 for no gain (39-J.Blackwell).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 4 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (11:26) 6-T.Townsend punts 60 yards to CHI 7, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-37-D.Ross.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 4 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (9:38) 19-T.Taylor punts 57 yards to HOU 24, Center-46-S.Daly. 82-S.Sims to HOU 48 for 24 yards (46-S.Daly; 92-D.Hardy). PENALTY on HOU-17-K.Boyd, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 24.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 15 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (9:08) 6-T.Townsend punts 47 yards to CHI 44, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-37-D.Ross. PENALTY on CHI-22-E.Hicks, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 44.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 8 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 41%

    (5:32) 19-T.Taylor punts 25 yards to HOU 23, Center-46-S.Daly, out of bounds.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 20 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (3:37) 6-T.Townsend punts 42 yards to CHI 33, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-D.Carter to CHI 34 for 1 yard (17-K.Boyd). ** Injury Update: CHI-45-A.Ogbongbemiga has returned to the game.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 6 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 75%

    (13:43) 15-K.Fairbairn 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 10 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 54%

    (10:51) 6-T.Townsend punts 37 yards to CHI 6, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-37-D.Ross.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 14 at the 98
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (9:36) 19-T.Taylor punts 54 yards to HOU 44, Center-46-S.Daly. 82-S.Sims to CHI 45 for 11 yards (92-D.Hardy, 21-J.Jones).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 4 at the 36 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 70%

    (2:56) 8-C.Santos 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 13 at the 64 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (1:45) 6-T.Townsend punts 44 yards to CHI 20, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-D.Carter.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 17 at the 60 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (:34) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete deep right to 15-R.Odunze.