Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 17 at the 67

Chicago Bears 3 – Houston Texans 13

(6:07) 19-T.Taylor punts 54 yards to HOU 13, Center-46-S.Daly, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.57 EP
74% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 67, worth -3.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model