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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 11 at the 88

Houston Texans 13 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(3:49) 6-T.Townsend punts 37 yards to HOU 49, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.82 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.00 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 88, worth -4.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 46, worth -2.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model