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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 81

Chicago Bears 10 – Houston Texans 16

What Actually Happened

(9:38) 19-T.Taylor punts 57 yards to HOU 24, Center-46-S.Daly. 82-S.Sims to HOU 48 for 24 yards (46-S.Daly; 92-D.Hardy). PENALTY on HOU-17-K.Boyd, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 24.

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.70 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 81, worth -4.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.15 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 38, worth -2.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model