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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 38

Houston Texans 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(10:25) 15-K.Fairbairn 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +4.06 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 38, worth -1.65 EP
KICK +0.55 EP
What Happened
  • 66% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 47, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT +0.21 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model