Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 15 at the 91

Houston Texans 16 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(9:08) 6-T.Townsend punts 47 yards to CHI 44, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-37-D.Ross. PENALTY on CHI-22-E.Hicks, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 44.

The Three Options

GO -3.38 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.02 EP
70% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 91, worth -5.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model