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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 34

Houston Texans 16 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(13:43) 15-K.Fairbairn 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.30 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 34, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 44, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT +0.42 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model