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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 36

Chicago Bears 10 – Houston Texans 19

What Actually Happened

(2:56) 8-C.Santos 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.03 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 36, worth -1.04 EP
KICK +1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model