Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 13 at the 64

Houston Texans 19 – Chicago Bears 13

(1:45) 6-T.Townsend punts 44 yards to CHI 20, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +0.51 EP
71% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 64, worth -2.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model