4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 17 at the 60

Chicago Bears 13 – Houston Texans 19

What Actually Happened

(:34) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete deep right to 15-R.Odunze.

The Three Options

GO +0.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +1.16 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 60, worth -0.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 19, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model