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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 50

Houston Texans 3 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(1:40) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 87-C.Stover pushed ob at CHI 32 for 18 yards (49-T.Edmunds).

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.00 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 50, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -0.92 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 14, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model