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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 13 at the 15

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(4:23) 2-E.McPherson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +5.96 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 15, worth -0.86 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.30 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model