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Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2024-09-15 · 16:25 GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

CIN
32.2%
KC
67.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC defense: -0.084 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • KC on 3 more days rest than CIN
  • KC offense: +0.022 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • Joe Burrow (CIN): -0.000 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

CIN 20
–
KC 26
Projected margin: KC by 6 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

CIN

Kris Jenkins DT Out Thumb
Tee Higgins WR Doubtful Hamstring
Tanner Hudson TE Doubtful Knee
Amarius Mims T Doubtful Pectoral

KC

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 25
–
KC 26

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:44 FG CIN (10:44) 2-E.McPherson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. CIN 3 – KC 0
  • Q1 02:13 FG KC (2:13) 7-H.Butker 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. CIN 3 – KC 3
  • Q2 12:09 TD CIN (12:09) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 80-A.Iosivas for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 9 – KC 3
  • Q2 08:57 TD KC (8:57) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 4-R.Rice for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 10 – KC 9
  • Q2 04:23 FG CIN (4:23) 2-E.McPherson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. CIN 13 – KC 10
  • Q2 01:37 FG CIN (1:37) 2-E.McPherson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. CIN 16 – KC 10
  • Q3 08:25 TD KC (8:25) (Shotgun) 64-W.Morris and 54-L.Chenal reported in as eligible. 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 64-W.Morris for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 16 – KC 16
  • Q3 02:22 TD CIN (2:22) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 80-A.Iosivas for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 22 – KC 17
  • Q4 14:52 TD KC (14:52) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at CIN 34 for 0 yards (sack split by 98-T.Wharton and 51-M.Danna). FUMBLES (98-T.Wharton) [51-M.Danna], RECOVERED by KC-27-C.Conner at CIN 38. 27-C.Conner for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 22 – KC 23
  • Q4 09:33 FG CIN (9:33) 2-E.McPherson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. CIN 25 – KC 23
  • Q4 00:03 FG KC (:03) 7-H.Butker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. CIN 25 – KC 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 3 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 47%

    (12:14) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 88-M.Gesicki pushed ob at KC 6 for 37 yards (6-B.Cook).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (10:44) 2-E.McPherson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 1 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 98%

    (4:49) 42-C.Steele up the middle to CIN 2 for 1 yard (92-B.Hill; 55-L.Wilson).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.16 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

    (2:13) 7-H.Butker 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 6 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (:38) 8-R.Rehkow punts 45 yards to KC 27, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 17-M.Hardman to KC 29 for 2 yards (26-T.Anderson).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 13 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 95%

    (4:23) 2-E.McPherson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 5 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 78%

    (1:37) 2-E.McPherson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 11 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 29%

    (:24) 14-M.Araiza punts 49 yards to CIN 1, impetus ends at CIN 1, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-13-N.Johnson.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 63%

    (12:01) (Shotgun) 64-W.Morris and 54-L.Chenal reported in as eligible. 42-C.Steele left guard to CIN 32 for 5 yards (22-G.Stone; 24-V.Bell).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (2:22) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 80-A.Iosivas for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 12 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 68%

    (9:33) 2-E.McPherson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:08) 14-M.Araiza punts 63 yards to CIN 7, Center-41-J.Winchester. 15-C.Jones to CIN 16 for 9 yards (2-J.Williams).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 15 at the 67 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (2:46) 8-R.Rehkow punts 53 yards to KC 14, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 17-M.Hardman pushed ob at KC 25 for 11 yards (48-C.Adomitis).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 6 at the 32 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 74%

    (:03) 7-H.Butker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.