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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 43

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(12:14) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 88-M.Gesicki pushed ob at KC 6 for 37 yards (6-B.Cook).

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.13 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 43, worth -2.74 EP
KICK -1.21 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.09 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -3.24 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model