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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 37

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 16

What Actually Happened

(12:01) (Shotgun) 64-W.Morris and 54-L.Chenal reported in as eligible. 42-C.Steele left guard to CIN 32 for 5 yards (22-G.Stone; 24-V.Bell).

The Three Options

GO +2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.72 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 37, worth -1.88 EP
KICK +0.11 EP
  • 63% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model