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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 3

Cincinnati Bengals 16 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(2:22) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 80-A.Iosivas for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.27 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 3, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model