4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 4

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(10:44) 2-E.McPherson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +1.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.07 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 4, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.13 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP