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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 32

Kansas City Chiefs 23 – Cincinnati Bengals 25

What Actually Happened

(:03) 7-H.Butker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +1.26 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 32, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +2.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 42, worth -0.19 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model