4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 1

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(2:13) 7-H.Butker 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +4.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.23 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 1, worth +0.98 EP
KICK +2.26 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.14 EP
PUNT +0.55 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.16 EP