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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 72

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(:38) 8-R.Rehkow punts 45 yards to KC 27, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 17-M.Hardman to KC 29 for 2 yards (26-T.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +0.96 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 72, worth -4.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 30, worth -1.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model