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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 12 at the 51

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(7:13) 8-C.Waitman punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.35 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 51, worth -2.84 EP
KICK -1.59 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.27 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model