PIT @ DEN — 4th & Data

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HC Mike Tomlin

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Denver Broncos

HC Sean Payton

Sunday 2024-09-15 · 16:25 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.0 O/U 36.5

Win Probability

PIT

51.5%

DEN

48.5%

🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

QB edge to PIT: Bo Nix (DEN) -0.415 vs Justin Fields (PIT) -0.052 EPA/dropback
PIT offense: -0.085 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
DEN offense: -0.098 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
DEN defense: -0.047 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
Bo Nix (DEN) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

PIT 19

–

DEN 17

Projected margin: PIT by 2 Projected total: 36

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

PIT

Isaac Seumalo G Out Pectoral

Roman Wilson WR Questionable Ankle

Russell Wilson QB Questionable Calf

DEN

Devaughn Vele WR Out Ribs

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 13

–

DEN 6

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 02:01 TD PIT (2:01) (Shotgun) 2-J.Fields pass short left to 80-D.Washington for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 6 – DEN 0
Q2 00:02 FG PIT (:02) 9-C.Boswell 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman. PIT 10 – DEN 0
Q3 04:20 FG PIT (4:20) 9-C.Boswell 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman. PIT 13 – DEN 0
Q4 10:45 FG DEN (10:45) 3-W.Lutz 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. PIT 13 – DEN 3
Q4 01:56 FG DEN (1:56) 3-W.Lutz 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. ** Injury Update: DEN-72-G.Bolles has returned to the game. PIT 13 – DEN 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 DEN 4th & 3 at the 63

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 52%

(13:09) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to PIT 10, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 19-C.Austin to PIT 24 for 14 yards (43-K.Smith).
Q1 PIT 4th & 2 at the 68

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP

p(convert) 60%

(11:38) 8-C.Waitman punts 53 yards to DEN 15, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.
Q1 DEN 4th & 9 at the 84

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37%

(9:41) 9-R.Dixon punts 52 yards to PIT 32, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 19-C.Austin to PIT 43 for 11 yards (34-J.Skinner). PENALTY on PIT-51-Ni.Herbig, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 32.
Q2 DEN 4th & 6 at the 52

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39% p(FG) 28%

(14:10) 9-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to PIT 1, impetus ends at PIT 1, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-20-M.Burton.
Q2 PIT 4th & 12 at the 51

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29% p(FG) 30%

(7:13) 8-C.Waitman punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback.
Q2 DEN 4th & 7 at the 39

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 61%

(2:32) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short middle to 16-T.Franklin (6-P.Queen).
Q3 PIT 4th & 10 at the 58

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(12:53) 8-C.Waitman punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback.
Q3 DEN 4th & 5 at the 75

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 45%

(10:19) 9-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to PIT 28, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 19-C.Austin to PIT 24 for -4 yards (40-J.Strnad).
Q3 PIT 4th & 8 at the 74

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(9:02) 8-C.Waitman punts 49 yards to DEN 25, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 19-M.Mims. PENALTY on DEN-2-P.Surtain, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 25.
Q3 PIT 4th & 2 at the 35

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP

p(convert) 56% p(FG) 70%

(4:20) 9-C.Boswell 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.
Q3 DEN 4th & 6 at the 66

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41%

(3:13) 9-R.Dixon punts 58 yards to PIT 8, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 19-C.Austin to PIT 19 for 11 yards (20-M.Burton, 45-N.Adkins).
Q3 PIT 4th & 12 at the 83

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(1:26) 8-C.Waitman punts 52 yards to DEN 31, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 19-M.Mims pushed ob at DEN 45 for 14 yards (81-M.Pruitt). PENALTY on DEN-29-J.McMillian, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 40.
Q4 DEN 4th & 6 at the 42

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38% p(FG) 53%

(12:38) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 11-J.Reynolds to PIT 20 for 22 yards (27-C.Trice).
Q4 DEN 4th & 6 at the 16

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 95%

(10:45) 3-W.Lutz 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Q4 PIT 4th & 4 at the 80

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 50%

(8:56) 8-C.Waitman punts 51 yards to DEN 29, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 19-M.Mims to DEN 31 for 2 yards (44-T.Matakevich).
Q4 DEN 4th & 8 at the 67

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(7:57) 9-R.Dixon punts 54 yards to PIT 13, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 19-C.Austin to PIT 19 for 6 yards (43-K.Smith).
Q4 PIT 4th & 7 at the 56 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(4:53) 8-C.Waitman punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback. ** Injury Update: PIT-44-T.Matakevich has returned to the game.
Q4 DEN 4th & 5 at the 11 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37% p(FG) 97%

(1:56) 3-W.Lutz 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. ** Injury Update: DEN-72-G.Bolles has returned to the game.
Q4 PIT 4th & 4 at the 64 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 48%

(:18) 8-C.Waitman punts 54 yards to DEN 10, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 19-M.Mims to DEN 19 for 9 yards (15-B.Skowronek).