Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 58

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Denver Broncos 0

(12:53) 8-C.Waitman punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.89 EP
68% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 58, worth -3.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model