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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 68

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(11:38) 8-C.Waitman punts 53 yards to DEN 15, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.24 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 68, worth -4.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.47 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 26, worth -1.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP