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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 35

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(4:20) 9-C.Boswell 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.81 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 35, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.59 EP
What Happened
  • 70% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 45, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP