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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 42

Denver Broncos 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(12:38) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 11-J.Reynolds to PIT 20 for 22 yards (27-C.Trice).

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.43 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -0.41 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model