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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 80

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(8:56) 8-C.Waitman punts 51 yards to DEN 29, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 19-M.Mims to DEN 31 for 2 yards (44-T.Matakevich).

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.18 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 80, worth -4.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.79 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 37, worth -1.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model