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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 67

Denver Broncos 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(7:57) 9-R.Dixon punts 54 yards to PIT 13, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 19-C.Austin to PIT 19 for 6 yards (43-K.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.74 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 25, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model